This weekend we have a 13-fight card then extended 3-week break. I’m excited to have UFC back and that I am prepared to win some money on Saturday. The card will take place in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters making their UFC introduction so it is always nice once you are already familiar with the fighters on the card. Because this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings competitions aren’t the greatest, but there’s still a lot of money to be obtained. I will be chasing the big $15k top prize in the $8 GPP in addition to the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in money games, mainly H2Hs, but I’ll be taking multiple shots at these huge prizes. Listed below are a Couple of plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is how I will be starting my money lineup. I will put in Vick and Gaethje then figure out the rest from there. Any battle Gaethje is in is full of action and his three UFC battles have all been Fight Of The Year type fights. Those types of fights are great for DraftKings. Notably cash games because we can lock in a win and get all the points in the best fight on the card. Normally 4 wins will get the job done in cash games and we will get over 100 points with this battle. But with that triumph locked in, we just need to find 3 others we feel good about.
GPP play of the week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It is challenging to need to pay $9.5k for a man like Barberena if you can just pay an additional $200 to find a -1000 preferred in Anders. However, I believe that’s what most people will do and that’s what makes Barberena a fantastic GPP play. I believe we will get him in a marginally lower possession due to his large salary, and he’s got a very good shot at obtaining a 1st round win. If he can get a 1st round KO then he’ll have 100 points so he’ll pay off that large salary. If you believe Ellenberger is totally faded, I believe that you should find some Barberena on your lineups. His ITD line is -170 and Ellenberger resembles he is a shell of his old self. I think Barberena does pick up an end inside this struggle so I will throw him in some GPPs and expect he is beneath possessed.
Underdog drama of the week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is merely the effortless value play of the week. Presently, Fili is your gambling popular at -115 over Michael Johnson in +105. However, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is only $7.5k. I really like taking that worth when it’s available so I presume he’s in play in most formats. He will be popular in tournaments together with the value we are getting on him, but I am willing to consume that chalk and I don’t want to get burnt by completely fading that worth. I really do think this is the toughest fight on the card to call, but if Fili keeps with his wrestling I think he will have a good chance at winning this battle. If the fight stays standing for 15-minutes, I’d prefer MJ although not by a good deal. At $7.5k we don’t need a huge score from Fili so any win will likely do just fine. I am not going to pass on this respect and I think he’s the easy underdog of the week on DK.
Fade of the week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This could just be my own personal prejudice but I will not have Drew Dober in some of my primary ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my cash lineup. Dober has just went for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he is mainly just looking to attack. I believe that this will be a striking battle as well and I think that it will be nearer than the chances signal. At $8.9k I think we’ll require a finish from him to end up on the winning GPP lineup and that I really don’t see that happening. If you do think Dober can get a KO, then you should be playing him. I will just be paying up someplace because I’m not sure he can get that complete and that I wouldn’t be amazed if he even lost the fight. I will say that I never seem to use Dober in DraftKings, so I could get burnt again but I am going to stick with my Dober evaporate and he’ll be my fade of this week to get UFC Lincoln.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using analysis on every fight, my personal strategies & recommendations, and also my selection outlook for every fight then you can discover that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks

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